The data shows that Bitcoin traders are rebuilding bets on a move toward $80,000 as easing geopolitical tensions, firmer institutional demand, and a rebound above $70,000 revive appetite for upside exposure after weeks of defensive positioning.
Looking at on-chain metrics, the concentration of interest at $80,000, $85,000, and even $100,000 reflects a market willing to price a test of higher levels if macro pressure continues to fade. Statistically speaking, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 is around 26% this month, according to prediction markets.
Options Traders Rotate Back to Upside
The strongest evidence of improved market sentiment has come from traders reworking their positions after the ceasefire announcement. On-chain price models help explain why those strikes are drawing attention, with Glassnode’s key reference levels placing the active investors' mean at $85,000, the short-term holder cost basis at $81,300, and the true market mean at around $78,000.
- The $80,000 call has become the single biggest strike by open interest, with around $1.5 billion tied up in contracts.
- Open interest at the $85,000 strike has climbed to about $60 million, while $100,000 calls stand near $45 million.
- The shift marks a notable change in tone after a stretch in which traders spent much of their energy buying protection against another leg lower.
Ceasefire Relief Eases One Pressure Point
The macro backdrop helps explain why the crypto market was willing to shift into more bullish bets. The latest US consumer price index showed inflation at 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, while the monthly index rose 0.9%, the largest increase since mid-2022.
Bitcoin’s options market appears to be trading that window, with the concentration of interest at $80,000, $85,000, and even $100,000 reflecting a market willing to price a test of higher levels if macro pressure continues to fade.
Our Take
The data shows that Bitcoin's on-chain metrics still point to a repair phase, with the stress conditions easing but demand not yet reasserted strongly enough to mark a clean reversal. As a data-driven analyst, I believe that the market is still waiting for proof before a breakout, and until that proof arrives, Bitcoin’s push higher is likely to remain a recovery trade first and a breakout second.
Sources
- Cryptoslate - Bitcoin Bulls Are Eyeing $100,000 Yet The Futures Market Hints At Another Dip First
- Glassnode - On-chain Metrics Report
