The data shows that Bitcoin's price has been heavily influenced by the rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.599% and the 30-year yield at 5.131%.
Looking at on-chain metrics, we can see that the $78,000 support zone is crucial, and a daily close below $77,700 could lead to a drop toward $76,500 and $75,000.
Key Facts
Statistically speaking, the likelihood of a breakdown below $77,700 is increasing, and the market is waiting for macro stabilization before a recovery can occur.
- The 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.599%, making it an attractive alternative to Bitcoin, which is a non-yielding asset.
- The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.131%, its highest level since May 2025.
- Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with Nasdaq futures is above 0.7, indicating a strong relationship between the two assets.
The Support Map
The support map for Bitcoin shows that the $78,000 zone is a critical level, and a daily close below $77,700 could lead to a drop toward $76,500 and $75,000.
- The $82,000 level is a major upside resistance and 200-day EMA checkpoint.
- The $80,000 level is the first upside reset level, and reclaiming this level could break the lower-low sequence and set up a retest of $82,000.
- The $78,000 level is the headline support, and a daily close above this level could keep the correction technically contained.
Our Take
As a data-driven analyst, I believe that the current market conditions are critical, and the $78,000 support zone is a make-or-break level for Bitcoin.
The data shows that the market is waiting for macro stabilization before a recovery can occur, and the rising Treasury yields are making it increasingly difficult for Bitcoin to attract investors.
