The data shows that the current state of quantum computing is not yet a significant threat to Bitcoin. Looking at on-chain metrics, the number of logical qubits and fault-tolerant gates required for a cryptographically relevant attack on Bitcoin is still out of reach for current systems.
The data indicates that progress is being made, but the field remains in the transition from noisy hardware to early fault tolerance. The key shift is away from raw physical-qubit counts and toward logical qubits, gate fidelity, runtime, and error correction.
The Current State of Quantum Computing
Statistically speaking, the progress in quantum computing is visible across three fronts: below-threshold error correction, small logical-qubit demonstrations, and deeper circuits with lower noise. However, the sector remains short of a large-scale fault-tolerant machine.
- The number of logical qubits required for a cryptographically relevant attack on Bitcoin is estimated to be around 1,200 to 1,450.
- The number of fault-tolerant gates required is estimated to be in the tens of millions.
- The current public demonstrations of logical qubits remain in the tens, not the thousands.
Milestones to Watch
The first milestone to watch is the move from tens to hundreds of high-fidelity logical qubits that remain stable long enough to execute meaningful programs. The second milestone is architectural validation, with an emphasis on progress in superconducting and photonic systems.
The key to mitigating the quantum threat is not to wait for a cryptographically relevant system to be built, but to start migrating to post-quantum cryptography now.
The data shows that the cost of building a quantum computer capable of cracking Bitcoin is estimated to be in the billion-dollar range, making it unlikely for bad actors to access such a machine in the near future.
Our Take
As a data-driven analyst, I believe that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is real, but it is not imminent. The data shows that while progress is being made, the required resources for a cryptographically relevant attack on Bitcoin are still out of reach for current systems.
In conclusion, the quantum threat to Bitcoin is a planning category threat, not an immediate one. The data indicates that the risk of a quantum attack on Bitcoin is low, but it is essential to start migrating to post-quantum cryptography now to mitigate this risk.
